Re: Starship lunar lander pro program Artemis - HLS
Napsal: 26.10.2026 21:27
NASA odhaduje pocet startu na jednu lunarni misi 22, Elon 6..8 startu.
"NASA Safety Panel Says a Starship Moon Landing Needs 22 Launches. Musk Has a Very Different Number "
“That’s way too high,” Musk chimed in beneath Berger’s post. “Actual number will be more like 6 to 8.”
https://gizmodo.com/nasa-safety-panel-s ... =279769251
Riziko ze alespon jeden start selze je pomerne vysoka.
P=1-(1-p)^n, kde
n-pocet startu
p-pravdepodobnost selhani pri jednom startu
Kdyz bude napr. spolehlivost 99%, tak pri Elonove cislo je cca 8% a pri 22 startech cca 20%, ze jeden start selze.
To je strasne moc.
"NASA Safety Panel Says a Starship Moon Landing Needs 22 Launches. Musk Has a Very Different Number "
“That’s way too high,” Musk chimed in beneath Berger’s post. “Actual number will be more like 6 to 8.”
https://gizmodo.com/nasa-safety-panel-s ... =279769251
Riziko ze alespon jeden start selze je pomerne vysoka.
P=1-(1-p)^n, kde
n-pocet startu
p-pravdepodobnost selhani pri jednom startu
Kdyz bude napr. spolehlivost 99%, tak pri Elonove cislo je cca 8% a pri 22 startech cca 20%, ze jeden start selze.
To je strasne moc.